How grades are calculated

We turn the book's price into a chance. −150 → 150 ÷ 250 = 60%. +180 → 100 ÷ 280 = 35.7%.

For games: team strength, home/away, recent form and live score and clock. For player props: the player's last 10 real box scores (latest games weigh most), per-minute rate × recent minutes, and opponent strength (capped ±12%). With 10+ games we blend 75% box scores / 25% books' consensus. Fewer than 5 games → no estimate.

Edge = our chance − books' chance, in points. 58% vs 55% = +3.0.

A pick qualifies at +2.0 or more. Bar colours: green ≥ +2.0, amber 0 to +2.0, red below 0.

Each pick gets a 0–100 score from its edge, data quality, sample size and market agreement.

• A strong — score 75+
• B solid — 55–74
• C caution — 42–54
• D avoid — below 42

• Edge 0 or below → always D.
• Edge above 0 but under +2.0 → C at best.
• Edge +2.0 to +8.0 → the score's grade stands.
• Edge above +8.0 → C at best (a claim that big is usually a bad price).
• Prices beyond +5000 are rejected before grading. Props must sit between 1.50 and 4.00 to qualify.

A slip is as strong as its weakest leg, then its combined edge gates it:

• Combined edge 0 or below → D.
• Under +2.0 → C at best.
• Otherwise → the weakest leg's grade.